Transpacific eastbound ocean freight rates are settling once again. Carriers found success implementing increases during the second half of December, but most attempts since then have not held for long. It appears carriers may have been overly optimistic about a volume surge in advance of the Lunar New Year holiday. They are once again turning to blank sailings to control capacity and build rollover pools to last through the extended holiday in Asia.
Ahead of the annual ocean freight bid season, expectations are that Asia-US rate levels will be similar to 2025-2026 levels, perhaps slightly lower. Despite lower import volumes and increasing capacity in the global market, carriers were able to maintain relatively healthy ocean freight levels in the spot market over the last year. Moving forward, they are looking to deploy capacity where it is most needed; for example, we expect more robust services from Southeast Asia to the US, and more options on non-US trades. Carriers will also continue to use blank sailings as a capacity control strategy.
This week, the Journal of Commerce highlighted an under-reported concern in the global ocean freight market. As carriers continue to order new vessels and slow crawl back to Red Sea routings, effective ocean freight capacity is growing. However, port infrastructure development is not keeping the same pace. There are doubts across the industry as to whether global ports can efficiently handle all of the new capacity coming online, especially the largest vessels. Many ports are already strained, and it is likely we will see more congestion in the coming years. Port congestion disrupts schedule reliability and frequently results in elevated freight rates, as we saw during the pandemic years.
We always encourage a balanced approach to bidding, awarding, and booking cargo. Rates will be important this year, as always, but it’s equally critical to consider reliability and service.
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Rachel Shames
VP, Pricing & Procurement
CV International, Inc.