The Transpacific Eastbound ocean market is finally seeing some slight rate settling. Additional capacity, especially on West Coast services, has provided a small measure of relief. Space remains tight, however, especially for East and Gulf Coast lanes, and rates on all lanes remain at elevated, peak-season levels.
High US import demand is expected to continue through at least July. Beyond that, the picture is unclear. Peak season has shifted from the traditional late summer / early fall period to a spring/early summer timeframe over the last few years. Geopolitics, tariff policy, and other disruptions have a more significant impact on peak timing now. These are very difficult to predict, and forecasting in general has been unreliable.
On the geopolitical front, things are also uncertain. There have been positive developments around the Iran conflict, with vessel traffic moving more freely through the Strait of Hormuz in recent weeks. However, vessel attacks have also occurred, and overall, the situation remains unstable. Maersk has now announced that two services will shift back to a Suez Canal transit, signaling growing confidence in the safety of the routing. Shifts back to the Suez would gradually free up more effective capacity.
US domestic truck capacity remains very tight. Fuel costs have softened somewhat, but the capacity situation is keeping rates elevated. Truckload rates recently hit an all-time high, exceeding pandemic-era levels.
Early booking is recommended on all modes. Forecasting remains very important as well, as challenging as it can be, to ensure reliable capacity.
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Rachel Shames
VP, Pricing & Procurement
CV International, Inc.