After a couple of rounds of rate increases in mid-October and the first of November, ocean freight rates from Asia to the US have once again settled at low levels. Carriers are struggling to maintain higher rate levels despite continuing to blank sailings. The short-term demand outlook is relatively weak. Most reports show that importers are generally maintaining lower inventory levels as they remain cautious about short- and long-term demand. Some industry analysts are forecasting a potential uptick in the first or second quarter of 2026, if enough importers need to restock inventories by then. Overall, however, the US ocean freight outlook for the new year remains very uncertain.
China and the US announced a deal earlier this month to pause the vessel fees that each side implemented, including the USTR 301 China ship fees. The pause is valid for one year, allowing time for more trade negotiations between parties.
Heading into the new year, global ocean freight markets will contend with increasing overcapacity issues, driven by new vessel builds as well as a potential return to Suez Canal routings. The timing of a possible return to the Suez is unclear; most agree carriers will wait for the current ceasefire in the Middle East to prove lasting before they shift networks back. While Suez reroutes do not impact a great deal of US services, there will be indirect impacts to most global lanes. An increase in effective global capacity, as well as major port congestion, particularly in Europe, is likely to be felt across trades.
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Rachel Shames
VP, Pricing & Procurement
CV International, Inc.