Uncertainties persist industry-wide as the year comes to a close. January is likely to bring a variety of new challenges, beginning with a potential ILA labor strike that would close all US East and Gulf Coast ports once again. There have been no positive labor negotiation developments in recent weeks, and it appears the ILA is preparing for a work stoppage effective January 15. The main sticking point is automation, and neither side seems ready to compromise on this critical issue. There is no clear indication of how long a labor strike would last, as it depends on further negotiations, potential presidential action, etc., but many believe the duration could be longer than the three-day strike in October.
January 20 will bring the US presidential inauguration, and more uncertainty around action related to a strike (if it occurs) and threatened tariffs on major US trading partners, as well as potential retaliatory tariffs on US exports. It is still unclear whether significant tariff changes will materialize, or if they are simply a starting point for negotiations.
January 29 is the start of the Lunar New Year holiday. Most Asia operations will close for at least a few days; China factories and offices will close for about a week, some longer. The holiday is typically preceded by a surge in import volume to the US ahead of the closures. If imports increase for the holiday, as well as front-loading of cargoes ahead of the potential strike and increased tariffs, freight rate increases will follow and space will be tight, particularly to US West Coast ports.
The new ocean alliances will also take effect in the first quarter of 2025. US regulatory approval for the Premier Alliance, comprised of remaining members of THE Alliance, has been delayed while the Federal Maritime Commission gathers additional information; it’s widely expected that the refreshed alliance will ultimately be approved. Combined with the new Gemini Cooperation and the end of the 2M alliance, expect plenty of service and schedule changes, as well as blank sailings.
In India, we are watching a potential port labor strike that would begin as of December 17, a continuation of disagreements from a threatened strike this past August.
As always, forecasting and early booking are critical. Please be in touch with your CVI Customer Service Representative with your shipping plans for 1Q 2025 as soon as possible.
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Rachel Shames
VP, Pricing & Procurement
CV International, Inc.